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Prediction for CME (2026-03-22T16:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-03-22T16:23Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/45244/-1
CME Note: This somewhat asymmetric bright CME is visible to the SE in STEREO A COR2 for a few frames before a usual overnight data gap and in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1. Its source is a significant filament eruption with associated brightening/dimming starting around 2026-03-22T15:30Z, followed by high rising post-eruptive arcades, as seen in GOES SUVI 304, 284, and 195 centered around S20E15, south of Active Region 14398, and seen as ejecta and opening of field lines seen in STEREO A EUV 195/403 on/close to the SE limb. It appears that there may be some SE deflection/directionality to it,. as it erupts and progresses outward in the GOES SUVI 284 field of view. There is a bright bulk front and a wider faint shock front seen in all three coronagraphs. | Arrival information: Increase in B_total from 3.88 nT to 7.21 nT increasing to a maximum of 10.19 nT. Solar wind speed increased from roughly 530 km/s to roughly 600 km/s. Minor increase in solar wind temperature and density were also observed. This signature is likely associated with the arrival of CME with ID 2026-03-22T16:23:00-CME-001 which was modeled to impact missions near Earth at 2026-03-25T08:55Z (+/- 7 hours).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-03-25T05:53Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-03-25T01:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2026-03-23T01:36Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 817
Longitude (deg): 028E
Latitude (deg): 30S
Half-angular width (deg): 30 

Notes: Assessed twice by successive advisors with similar results, left first advisor's assessment unaltered. This solution encompasses wider ejecta seen on C2, C3, CCOR1 along track of STEREO A COR2 imagery (that stops too early to be directly used for fit). Bulk of material in narrower lobe heading SE of Sun-Earth line but decided could not rule out filament material in wider cone given extent of lift off.

Space weather advisor: Michael Lawrence after Tony Gillard

Lead Time: 39.30 hour(s)
Difference: 4.88 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2026-03-23T14:35Z

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